The role of the mobile phones in the fight against the coronavirus in China

The tectonic impact caused by the Coronavirus pandemic at global scale, is capable to overcome the effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2008 global financial and economic crises. According to some experts, such a pandemic was already expected to break out, it was just a matter of time.

Undoubtedly, the quick and effective set of decisions taken by the ruling Communist Party of China, is of crucial importance for China’s success. According to my Chinese friends, with whom I had multiple phone conversations, life in China has not yet totally turned back normal. But the first signs of the normalization are seen: such as the return of the density of the traffic in the large cities, people getting out of their homes and going to their work more safely among others. At this stage, the mobile phones function as an important auxiliary tool. They may be playing a major role in containing the crisis slowly.

IS THERE A VIRUS CARRIER NEARBY?

Everybody using a smartphone in China, can instantly access this three information on her or his phone via GPS:

1. Is there a virus carrier nearby?

2. Is there a carrier around my neighborhood?

3. How many carriers are there and where are they around the country at the moment?

The location of the carriers is displayed on the map of smartphones. People can take measures according to this map. The government can intervene according to the GPS records. If a carrier has passed near, you can see it from your mobile phone via the GPS signal, where and when the person has walked by.

Another application of the Chinese “Alibaba Machine Learning”, one of the world's giants in the field of artificial intelligence, provides technological infrastructure which helps to get out of the house, to use the public transport and to go to work safely. This application is called the "Alipay Health Code", and it is used around 200 cities throughout the country. The application had existed since February and it aims to prevent the unnecessary quarantines costing hundreds of billions dolars to the global economy. Some similar apps are now available on WeChat, which functions as the China's WhatsApp. Baidu, which functions as the Google of the country, and many other local administrations are directly informing their residents about a carrier's position online.

Thanks to the GPS and the apps on smartphones, in South Korea and Taiwan, everybody using a smartphone is informed of the risk of personal contact with a potential carrier, just like in China but with different models.

3-STAGE PLAN IN THE USE OF DIGITAL TOOLS

Governments intending to use digital tools for the sake of containing the spread of the virus, need to implement a three-phase plan:

1) Political decisions has to be made. A change in the personal data (privacy) laws is highly likely required in these kinds of extraordinary conditions; especially the model with respect to digital tools to be used, should be determined by the political authority.

2) The technological infrastructure: The agreement to transfer the data from the scientific/technological organization that can program the GPS systems, or from companies such as Google and Apple, to the scientific center responsible for the combat against the virus (sharing of data) is obligatory. The infrastructure which operators share the location data with the law enforcement institutions, already exists. As a matter of fact, Google and Apple also collects the users’ information within their own infrastructure, and use them for their own interests.

3) The implementation phase: The political authority must ensure that the application created is used and is made mandatory (as much as possible) after clarifying the previous phases. In sum, the more people are in the system, the safer we will be.

THE WORLD IS STUDYING CHINA'S METHOD

Each country is trying to develop its own solutions against the virus rooted in its particular political system, economic capacity and social structure. However, the whole world is discussing China's success in the battle against Covid-19. Wuhan, we know as the first city in China where the risk of a mass spread of the virus had occurred, does not have any new cases now. Almost all new cases have meanwhile foreign roots in China. In Europe, declared as the new epicenter of the pandemic by the World Health Organization, the Chinese model has begun to be investigated in depth. Now, Austria and Germany in Europe, some Asian countries such as South Korea, Singapore and especially China, have commenced to analyze how they can benefit from technology (digital tools) in this harsh fight. The Israeli government has also started to study the advantages of GPS systems and applications, taking the example of the Chinese/Asian model.

Europe and the rest of the world is on alert. Yesterday the Robert Koch Institute based in Berlin, managing the pandemic process with the government in Germany, has announced that 20,000 cases in total have been diagnosed across the country and "If such a spread rate persist and cannot be stopped, within the next 2-3 months, the total number of cases can exceed 10 million within Germany ".

In this pandemic process, while the governments began announcing their own economic stimulus package, the argument of liberalism vs. etatism has come back on the political and economic agenda once again. As President Erdogan has stated, liberalism once again proves that it is incapable of resolving problems. A policy oriented on common goods and using etatism have actually shown their superiority over the liberal model since the 2008 global economic crisis. However, the shift from the old system is occurring gradually. For example, after Iran had requested 5 billion dolars as a support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time after 60 years, the answer and solution will probably come from the BREXIT countries that aim to establish a new global financial architecture for the (developing) world rather than the IMF.

3 MAIN POINTS IN CHINA'S SUCCESS

In addition to discipline, reason, science and determination, Asian countries, especially China, have used their own technologies to protect public healthcare and to ensure that economy is still running. Patients were immediately quarantined (Stage 1). People should not go outside the house unless they had to. Everyone started using medical masks. Care for the personal hygiene measures was/is taken. Society has been convinced by the seriousness of the crisis. In short, the instructions of the authorities were followed. Social interactions have been minimized (2. Stage). China has also begun to introduce the technological dimension in the struggle. Here, Chinese etatist model had been taken attention based on its fast and successful innovations such as the 5G systems and the various new devices in the field of artificial intelligence (machine learning) compared to the West countries. The country started to use gradually and successfully mobile phones (databases and the GPS system) in the fight against SARS-CoV-2 (3. Stage).

GERMANY CAN SWITCH TO THE CHINESE MODEL

Now within many Western media outlets, from the American New York Times to Germany's Handelsblatt, the necessity to understand China's technological measures and even to emulate them if necessary is emerged. In Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, mobile phones have also been systematically and widely used in the fight against the virus, for the safety of the citizens.

In conclusion, South Korea, Taiwan and Germany have also put the technology that China uses in its fight against the virus on their agenda.

Addressing German citizens, the German Chancellor Merkel had made the following statement, "The situation is quite serious. Take it seriously. Follow the precautions. We are witnessing the most difficult times since the end of World War II". Merkel's government had promised a “500 billion Euro stimulus and, in addition, loans with no limit" to keep the 4 trillion euros worth German economy afloat.

Facing this deep crisis, too, Germany has started to analyze general movements of the people through mobile phones (via GPS). A commission of 25 experts is orchestrating this process.

In this way, only the rate of spread is aimed to be clarified as the first stage. If the rate of spread in Germany cannot be stopped, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the scientific center managing this process alongside the government, had estimated that there would be around 10 million infected throughout the country. The German Chancellor Merkel had previously announced that 60 percent of the population is expected to be infected with the virus. But Germany, counting about 22 million retired population, had immediately introduced some strict measures and abandoned the initially adopted false Anglo-Saxon (ultra-neoliberal) model. The administrative states are implementing curfews one by one. Communities are being informed. The process was not let go on its own. Berlin had been turned back immediately from the initial mistake.

On the technological field, the RKI received anonymous data from Germany's largest operator, Deutsche Telekom, within the first week of the risk. The observation of the general movements of the people via the analysis of the data is very helpful. Evaluating the effectiveness of the measures (social isolation), and the implementation of a nationwide curfew, if necessary, is being aimed with this method. The aim for restricting the movements of the people, is to prevent the collapse of the health care or system (which can be called a "controlled increase") with a sudden increase in the number of cases (as is currently occurring in Italy at some degree). But in order to keep the spread to a minimum, Professor Lothar Wieler, director of the Robert Koch Institute, who manages this process with Merkel's government, and his team, has said that the digital capabilities in Germany should be used much more and systematically like being used currently in China and other aforementioned Asian countries.

PREVENTING THE PANDEMIC WITH THE GPS

In the field of GPS data, China and South Korea are also using the possibility of directly observing movements of each individual carrier. The governments of China, South Korea and Taiwan issue some strict warnings by displaying the location of each potential carrier via the GPS on maps: either anonymously (the Chinese example) or semi-anonymously (the South Korean example). Even the use of drones have come into play. Apart from drones, the use of credit cards (in South Korea) and the surveillance cameras are also being used at a maximum extent in order to prevent the epidemic from spreading further. With the applications that are developed, mobile phones are almost like a health card. The freedom of travel, the danger of the situation or a quarantine obligation is determined by the colors that appear in the applications (green, red, yellow).

Due to the personal data (privacy) protection laws in liberal countries such as in Germany ("Datenschutz"), some laws protecting the consumer rights may need to be modified for the current extraordinary condition, in order to implement the Chinese and South Korean methods. However, Turkey can immediately switch to the Chinese or the South Korean model in this regard. Probably, in this process we are witnessing, in China's success, the experience in usage of technology, gathering and evaluating large amounts of data, had contributed as much as a centralized-planned system built by the Communist Party of China.

THREE METHODS TO IMPLEMENT THE GPS MODEL

There are three methods in the use of the GPS data against the epidemic.

1) Model of South Korea: Largely non-anonymous, and information about individuals is shared directly: it is possible to see exactly where the infected people are. Information about age, gender, appearance, whether the carrier is masked or not, are shared on the mobile phones. It is possible to track the places the carrier went to, on the map. The authorities and people can take precautions accordingly. That is how the acceleration of the spread is being prevented.

2) In the second model, only the social movements are recorded (as Germany and Austria partially apply). This approach is made anonymously and only helps the governments to observe and to predict the rate of the spread. It is not possible for the people to use directly and learn about the carriers by the GPS (not possible in terms of location and time). In Germany, if the epidemic spreads wider throughout the country, the argument that it is possible to change the laws that protect the personal data and switching to the Chinese model is increasingly prevailing.

3) The Chinese model: Can be simplified as a mix of the first two models. It is possible to observe only the data that a positively tested person is present near and to learn about the risk of contact, without revealing the personal data of the people carrying the virus. It is also an application that notifies the user of the quarantine measures. Like the South Korean model, it is possible to track the carrier's destinations from the map, with the applications in the Chinese model. It is also possible to track the carrier's location via GPS from the mobile phones. The application helps to prevent some unnecessary quarantines. The main point is that when a person is tested positively, the people contacted by the patient are quarantined and the infection chain is being stopped. As proven in all three methods the use of technological capabilities appear to be an inevitable necessity – until a vaccine for the Covid-19 is developed –. The maximum usage of the digital capabilities, until the vaccine is found and the virus is completely wiped out from the face of the Earth, seems to be helpful for the governments and the communities which use them. It is quite hard to replace the individual and social measures such as minimizing social contacts and so forth. But, if the government and society consider the fact that the combat against this pandemic is a marathon, it will make our lives significantly easier by containing the spread thanks to the digital capabilities, especially in terms of minimizing the unnecessary quarantines and obtaining information about the risk of personal/social infection.

Sources (as of 22.3.2020):

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/corona-handydaten-101.html

https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/zugriff-auf-deutsche-handydat…

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/kultur/-herfried-muenkler-ueber-de…

https://app.handelsblatt.com/technik/digitale-revolution/dig…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronaviru…

https://www.heise.de/amp/meldung/Quarantaene-oder-nicht-Chin…

http://www.wired.com/story/phones-track-spread-covid19-good-…

https://m.focus.de/gesundheit/news/weniger-als-100-neuinfekt…

https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/auswertung-von-smartphone-daten-mit-digitalen-mitteln-gegen.684.de.html?dram:article_id=473046Koronavir